Microburbs
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Don't lose money in 2026.

The budget just moved the goalposts. See which suburbs are about to fall, before you bid. Type a suburb or address. Or ask a question.

Green drives growth Amber is mixed Red drags it downWe did the research.
Luke Metcalfe
Luke Metcalfe
Founder, Microburbs. 25 years of Australian property data.
DON'T LOSE MONEY IN 2026

The 2026 budget just moved the goalposts.

The budget trims values about 2-3% nationally, but the suburb you pick matters around 20 times more than the budget itself.

Negative gearing changes

Investor-heavy suburbs have been revised down about 4% versus the view before the budget. That can wipe out years of careful saving.

Investor concentration

When too many owners are investors, selling pressure can arrive fast. Sydney Olympic Park is about 40% investors. Castlecrag is about 5%.

Supply pressure

New apartments, nearby approvals and rental weakness can hit resale value. The risk is not city wide. It changes by suburb and pocket.

WHERE IT FALLS

Avoid the suburbs carrying the budget risk.

Owner-occupier suburbs are forecast to beat renter-heavy ones by about 2.3% a year (2026 outlook). In Melbourne, the gap is about 3.7% a year. See the post-budget suburb forecasts.

Market Signals section from the Bondi suburb report showing investor concentration, negative gearing, mortgage stress and other market price drivers
The live Market section in the Bondi suburb report. An investor sees 45.7% renters, the measured capital-growth impact, and 23% of dwellings held by negatively-geared landlords before deciding where to buy.
SuburbCityInvestor sharePost-budget outlook
Sydney Olympic ParkSydneyAbout 40% High risk. Investor exposure is about 8 times Castlecrag.
Dee WhySydneyHigh Avoid. Renter-heavy profile puts resale value under pressure.
MelbourneMelbourneHigh Weak. Melbourne renter-heavy areas trail by about 3.7% a year (2026 outlook).
CastlecragSydneyAbout 5% Steadier. Owner-occupier demand helps protect prices.
BrisbaneBrisbaneMixed Check pocket by pocket. Supply and rental mix decide the risk.
DUE DILIGENCE

Before you buy, see what's wrong with it.

A bad pocket can turn a good-looking deal into a long, expensive wait. See how risk shapes growth in our published research.

Risks section from a Bondi suburb report listing public housing, crime, noise, contamination, flooding, bushfire, aircraft noise and more, each with a measured growth impact
The Risks section from the Bondi report. Sixteen environmental, infrastructure and social risks, each with the measured capital-growth impact, read down to the pocket level.

A hidden discount can sit there for decades.

A home in Mascot carries about a $120k growth discount from aircraft noise over 22 years. Rents are unaffected, so the problem can be easy to miss.

Pass Clean risk profile and fair price.

Hold Needs a discount before it makes sense.

Kill The hidden risk is too expensive.

WHY BELIEVE IT

The forecasts are tested against 12 years of real sales.

Our suburb and street forecasts have been checked across 876,000 past forecasts over 12 years, with a 79% hit rate on direction. Experts calling the national market get it right only about half the time, so we go granular instead.

79%

Hit rate on forecast direction, tested across 876,000 past forecasts. See the method.

12 yrs

Of real sales used to check the forecasts, not a single snapshot. Post-budget update.

~50%

How often expert national forecasts call the direction right. We forecast the suburb instead. Compare.

Pricing a single home is a separate job. That one is our valuation, within 10% of the sale price about 87% of the time on homes under $800,000. Read the research.

Watch

How to make money in the property market, post-budget.

Luke Metcalfe, who built Microburbs, on what the budget changed and how to buy after it. About 13 and a half minutes, seventeen slides, ending on “It is not when you buy, it is where, and what you pay.”

The full session, start to finish. No signup, nothing to fill in. It is a buying strategy talk, not a walk through the research behind the numbers above.
Down to the microburb

A suburb is not one market. It is dozens.

Open any suburb report and the map breaks the suburb into microburbs, each one priced on its own. The pale blocks and the dark blocks below sit inside the same postcode.

Map of Bondi broken into microburbs, each coloured by its own median sale price, with neighbouring suburbs shaded at suburb level
Bondi, split into microburbs and coloured by median sale price. The small blocks inside the outlined suburb are microburbs, banded from under $5.89M to $28.9M. The larger flat areas around it are neighbouring suburbs, shaded at suburb level. Toggle a row in the report and the map switches to growth, risk or any other measure.

Find out if your suburb is about to fall.

Ask the chatbot before you bid. Check the suburb, the pocket and the risks that can cost you later.

“So much better than leaning on multiple websites for public housing, flood zones and the rest.”— Dharmendra Patel, Investor
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Two jobs, two tools

A valuation prices a property. A forecast predicts a street or suburb.

They answer different questions, so we keep them separate. One tells you what a home is worth today. The other tells you where a street or suburb is heading.

Valuation, for a property

What this specific home is worth right now. Within 10% of the eventual sale price about 87% of the time, tested on 182,517 homes under $800,000 that sold between 2020 and 2025.

How the valuation works →   Comparable sales →

Forecast, for a street or suburb

Where values are heading next. Street-level patterns explain 96% of price moves, and our suburb forecasts score a 79% hit rate across 876,000 past calls over 12 years.

Street research →   Suburb forecasts →

Open research

We publish a paper to back every claim.

Since 2014 we have tested what actually drives Australian property growth, then built each finding into the platform. Every number on this page has a paper behind it, and you can read the lot.

View all published research →

Why street level

Homes on the same street move together 96% of the time.

National
13%
State
36%
Suburb
61%
Street
96%

Price agreement: how often homes at each level move the same direction. The suburb average hides it. Read the paper →

2B+
Data points
14,069
Suburbs
100+
Data sources
353,728
Streets forecast
As featured in
Sydney Morning HeraldThe AgeFinancial ReviewDomainYour Investment PropertyThe Canberra TimesSydney Morning HeraldThe AgeFinancial ReviewDomainYour Investment PropertyThe Canberra Times
Trusted by
IAGProperty BuyerLendleaseEG
In their words

What investors and agents actually say.

Direct quotes from customers on how they use the platform. Real names, real desks.

Replaces multiple subscriptions

This is what I was trying to do, get to a point where we use one tool rather than four. And that is great.

Scott AggettScott AggettBuyers Agent
Street-level precision

What I was missing with so many things was street level data.

Neil CaseyNeil CaseyBuyers Agent
Valuation accuracy

The valuation is amazing. CoreLogic sits around 13% out, yours is around 6%.

NSNilesh ShuklaInvestor
Decision confidence

It gives our clients so much certainty. Independent data, quantified, and real peace of mind.

Tabitha BrightTabitha BrightBuyers Agent
All in one place

So much better than leaning on multiple websites for public housing, flood zones and the rest.

DPDharmendra PatelInvestor
Nobody else forecasts

The projection, the prediction thing is really, really good, which no other tool does that.

HMHarshit MathurBuyers Agent, Empowered Buyers
A competitive edge

I do think it is going to give me an edge, the kind of detail that makes me stand out.

Darren CooperDarren CooperSelling Agent